Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Sep 11?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi62¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES62¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Bitcoin is already above the threshold and has nearby support plus strong fund inflows, so a September 11 price of at least $78,000 is favored.

Bitcoin starts roughly one percent above $78,000, while sustained ETF inflows and nearby technical support favor buyers. Recent losses and bearish short-term momentum make the cushion fragile, and the September 11 inflation report could produce a sharp move in either direction. A finish at or above $78,000 is favored.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a small but meaningful cushion above the settlement threshold.
On September 7, Bitcoin's settlement-basis price was $78,798.90, about one percent above $78,000.
Daily technical readings remain broadly supportive despite weaker short-term momentum.
On September 7, Bitcoin's daily moving-average readings included 13 bullish signals, one neutral signal, and one bearish signal.
Persistent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide an active source of institutional demand.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $770 million of net inflows from September 1 through September 4.

Points to NO

The latest selloff and bearish momentum show that the threshold can be reached quickly.
On September 7, Bitcoin fell from roughly $80,200–$80,537 to $79,013.

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