Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,500 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+72%$100 paper stake

Kalshi42¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO58¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Sep 4 forecast

Bitcoin is trading just below the threshold with limited fresh buying support, so an $81,500-or-higher settlement is a meaningful underdog.

Bitcoin sits at $81,142.33, only 0.44% below the strike, after trading above it earlier in the day. That keeps an upward finish live, but the rebound appears partly driven by short closures rather than durable new demand, while the latest quote has fallen back below the threshold. A finish below $81,500 remains the more likely outcome.

Points to NO

Bitcoin’s latest cited spot quote is below the settlement threshold.
At 9:58 a.m. on September 4, Gemini listed Bitcoin at $81,140.07, below $81,500.
The recent rally relied heavily on short covering rather than fresh directional buying.
On September 3, CryptoQuant assessed that the rally was driven largely by short-position closures rather than new long positions.
The rebound has not yet confirmed a broader technical breakout.
On September 4, Bitcoin had not confirmed a breakout from its four-hour falling wedge.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has already demonstrated enough intraday strength to clear the threshold.
Early on September 4 in European trading, Bitcoin reached $82,240, above $81,500.
Large spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide evidence of recent institutional demand.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $730 million in net inflows on September 3.

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