Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Sep 10?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi50¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES50¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 10

Forecast updated

Sep 10 forecast

Bitcoin is currently $78,176, barely above the threshold with less than a day remaining, so settlement at or above $78,000 is favored.

Bitcoin’s current $78,176 price provides only a slim cushion over the threshold. Recent trading has ranged well above and below $78,000, while heavy ETF redemptions indicate weak near-term demand. The narrow cushion leaves substantial downside risk, but with less than a day remaining, settlement above the line is the more likely outcome.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is currently above the settlement threshold, giving the affirmative outcome a small but immediate advantage.
On September 10, 2026, Bitcoin was priced at $78,176 with less than a day remaining before settlement.
Bitcoin recently recovered after falling below the threshold, showing buyers have responded around this price area.
Between September 8 and September 9, 2026, Bitcoin rebounded after touching $77,603 and was trading at $79,107 by 8:00 AM EDT on September 9.

Points to NO

Recent intraday swings have been far larger than the current cushion, leaving the threshold vulnerable to an ordinary price move.
On September 9, 2026, Bitcoin traded between $77,636 and $79,353.
Heavy ETF redemptions and a negative U.S. trading premium point to weak institutional spot demand near settlement.
On September 9, 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $236 million in net redemptions while the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index was negative.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.