Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Sep 9?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Kalshi72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin is about $944 above the strike with under seven hours remaining, so a September 9 settlement at or above $78,000 is likely.

Bitcoin currently trades near $78,944, giving it a modest cushion above the strike with little time remaining. Its rebound from below $78,000 and strong spot-fund inflows support staying above the threshold. However, recent intraday lows beneath the strike, elevated volatility, and a strained risk backdrop leave meaningful room for a late reversal.

Points to YES

Bitcoin was already trading comfortably above the $78,000 strike on settlement day.
At 14:31 on September 9, Bitcoin was quoted at 79,182 USDT.
Bitcoin quickly recovered from the previous day's dip below the strike.
During Asian trading on September 9, Bitcoin rebounded from $77,638 to above $79,000.
Strong spot-fund inflows provide near-term buying support.
By September 9, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted US$1.01 billion of net inflows over three trading sessions.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has recently traded below the strike, showing that the remaining cushion can disappear quickly.
Bitcoin fell as low as $77,600 on September 8.
Elevated short-term volatility raises the risk of a late move through the strike.
On September 9, implied volatility above 40 was assessed as signaling a larger price swing ahead without a clear direction.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.