Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Polymarket72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedNov 4

Forecast updated

Sep 30 forecast

El-Sayed leads most recent polls amid an unfavorable climate for Republicans, so a Democratic victory in Michigan’s Senate race is likely.

El-Sayed leads the polling averages and most recent surveys, while voters disapprove of Trump and prefer Democratic Senate control. The race remains competitive because some polls are tied or favor Rogers, Republican groups hold a major advertising advantage, and older voters lean strongly Republican. The most likely outcome is a narrow Democratic win, but a modest late shift could still overturn it.

Points to YES

El-Sayed holds a clear aggregate polling advantage with little time remaining.
On September 30, the Michigan polling average placed the Democratic nominee 3.8 points ahead.
Michigan’s broader political environment currently favors Democrats.
The September 24-28 survey found nearly six in ten Michigan voters disapproved of President Trump’s performance.
El-Sayed’s supporters appear more settled than Rogers’s supporters.
The September 24-28 survey found 87% of El-Sayed supporters were certain of their choice, compared with 80% of Rogers supporters.

Points to NO

The polling range still includes outcomes where Rogers is competitive or ahead.
A poll published September 29 found Rogers leading El-Sayed 46% to 44%.
Republican groups hold a substantial advertising advantage during the closing stretch.
By September 22, nine Republican-aligned groups had booked nearly $90 million in Michigan advertising through Election Day, roughly $30 million more than Democratic groups.
Rogers leads among older voters, who report especially strong turnout motivation.
The August 9-11 survey found voters age 50 and older favored Rogers 52% to 43%.

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