Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,750 on Sep 9?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake

Kalshi76¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES76¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin remains above $77,750 with only hours left, so a qualifying September 9 settlement is likely.

The settlement-basis price is $79,080.86, giving Bitcoin a modest cushion over $77,750 with less than half a day remaining. The cushion is vulnerable: Bitcoin touched $77,600 yesterday, short-term technicals were weak, and long liquidations showed active selling pressure. Still, the latest readings have recovered above the threshold, while recent ETF inflows provide some support. A qualifying September 9 settlement is therefore likely, with meaningful uncertainty because an ordinary intraday swing could erase the margin.

Points to YES

Bitcoin enters the final hours above the required threshold.
On September 9, the settlement-basis price was $79,080.86, roughly 1.68% above the $77,750 threshold.
Recent investment flows provide a supportive backdrop despite the short horizon.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received roughly $987 million of net inflows during the week ending September 7, their third consecutive weekly inflow.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has already demonstrated that it can cross below the threshold during the current bout of volatility.
Bitcoin traded as low as $77,600 on September 8, below the $77,750 threshold.
Short-term momentum recently favored sellers.
On September 8, Bitcoin traded below its 20-, 50-, and 200-period exponential moving averages on the one-hour chart, while its relative strength index was 33.86.
Forced selling has amplified recent downside pressure.
On September 8, $79 million of Bitcoin long positions were liquidated as total crypto liquidations reached $264 million.

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