Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,500 on Sep 11?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi64¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES64¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Bitcoin remains above $77,500 with its broader trend intact, so a September 11 price at or above the threshold is likely.

Bitcoin enters the final days above $77,500, supported by major daily moving averages, recent ETF inflows and strong gains over the past month. The cushion is narrow, however: momentum has faded, recent selling was forceful and the threshold sits inside a contested support zone. Same-day inflation data and Bitcoin’s capacity for abrupt moves leave meaningful uncertainty around an otherwise constructive setup.

Points to YES

Bitcoin’s broader trend remains constructive above its major daily moving averages.
On September 7, Bitcoin remained above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide evidence of continued institutional demand.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net weekly inflow of $986.85 million in the week ending September 4.
The identified support zone could absorb selling near the resolution threshold.
On September 7, Bitcoin support was identified at $77,000–$78,000, a range containing the $77,500 threshold.

Points to NO

Short-term momentum is fading after Bitcoin failed to hold its latest rally.
On September 7, Bitcoin fell from a session high of $80,537 to as low as $79,013 as short-term momentum weakened.
Strong labor data and rising energy prices increase the risk of tighter financial conditions weighing on Bitcoin.
On September 7, rising energy prices and stronger-than-expected US employment were assessed as keeping Federal Reserve tightening expectations elevated.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.