Jul 14WinWill Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry60%Entry → Exit27¢→100¢Paper return+270.4%
Jul 7WinUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry65%Entry → Exit29¢→100¢Paper return+244.8%
Aug 21WinUS ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry51%Entry → Exit36¢→100¢Paper return+177.8%
Jul 12WinWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry76%Entry → Exit36¢→100¢Paper return+177.8%
Aug 28WinWill Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry68%Entry → Exit42¢→100¢Paper return+138.1%
Jul 14WinUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry74%Entry → Exit44¢→100¢Paper return+127.3%
Sep 16WinWill SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry63%Entry → Exit46¢→100¢Paper return+117.4%
Oct 21WinWill Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry53%Entry → Exit46¢→100¢Paper return+117.4%
Sep 23WinNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry55%Entry → Exit47¢→100¢Paper return+112.8%
Oct 15WinWill there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?Q → NOKalshiQ at entry64%Entry → Exit48¢→100¢Paper return+108.3%
Sep 30WinWill Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry58%Entry → Exit48¢→100¢Paper return+108.3%
Oct 19WinParis curfew by October 21?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry61%Entry → Exit50¢→100¢Paper return+100%
Sep 7WinUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry61%Entry → Exit52¢→100¢Paper return+92.3%
Jul 16WinUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry84%Entry → Exit54¢→100¢Paper return+85.2%
Jul 15WinUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry76%Entry → Exit54¢→100¢Paper return+85.2%
Sep 6WinUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry74%Entry → Exit56¢→100¢Paper return+78.6%
Aug 22WinWill Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry82%Entry → Exit56¢→100¢Paper return+78.6%
Aug 1WinWill Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry70%Entry → Exit56¢→100¢Paper return+78.6%
Jul 6WinWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry69%Entry → Exit56¢→100¢Paper return+78.6%
Jun 29WinWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry74%Entry → Exit56¢→100¢Paper return+78.6%
Sep 30WinWill the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) be above 8.5 on Sep 30, 2026?Q → YESKalshiQ at entry81%Entry → Exit57¢→100¢Paper return+75.4%
Sep 3WinWill Centre Party (C) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry73%Entry → Exit58¢→100¢Paper return+72.4%
Sep 17WinWill AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry82%Entry → Exit58¢→100¢Paper return+72.4%
Jul 29WinU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry80%Entry → Exit58¢→100¢Paper return+72.4%
Oct 21WinWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry65%Entry → Exit59¢→100¢Paper return+69.5%
Jun 29WinStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry76%Entry → Exit59¢→100¢Paper return+69.5%
Aug 28WinWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry78%Entry → Exit60¢→100¢Paper return+66.7%
Jul 23WinIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry84%Entry → Exit60¢→100¢Paper return+66.7%
Sep 3WinUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry73%Entry → Exit62¢→100¢Paper return+61.3%
Aug 19WinRussia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry84%Entry → Exit62¢→100¢Paper return+61.3%
Jul 26WinIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry73%Entry → Exit62¢→100¢Paper return+61.3%
Jul 19WinIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry80%Entry → Exit62¢→100¢Paper return+61.3%
Oct 20WinWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry71%Entry → Exit64¢→100¢Paper return+56.3%
Aug 31WinWill Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry79%Entry → Exit64¢→100¢Paper return+56.3%
Aug 6WinWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry89%Entry → Exit64¢→100¢Paper return+56.3%
Jul 15WinUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry82%Entry → Exit64¢→100¢Paper return+56.3%
Oct 15WinWill there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?Q → YESKalshiQ at entry76%Entry → Exit65¢→100¢Paper return+53.8%
Sep 30WinWill Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry84%Entry → Exit65¢→100¢Paper return+53.8%
Aug 26WinWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry73%Entry → Exit65¢→100¢Paper return+53.8%
Aug 1WinIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry82%Entry → Exit66¢→100¢Paper return+51.5%
Jul 12WinRussia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry82%Entry → Exit67¢→100¢Paper return+49.3%
Aug 29WinWill Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry87%Entry → Exit67¢→100¢Paper return+49.3%
Aug 31WinWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry84%Entry → Exit68¢→100¢Paper return+47.1%
Jul 20WinIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry78%Entry → Exit68¢→100¢Paper return+47.1%
Jul 12WinWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry91%Entry → Exit68¢→100¢Paper return+47.1%
Jul 10WinStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry82%Entry → Exit68¢→100¢Paper return+47.1%
Jul 8WinWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry83%Entry → Exit68¢→100¢Paper return+47.1%
Sep 24WinSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry82%Entry → Exit68¢→100¢Paper return+47.1%
Sep 3WinUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry79%Entry → Exit68¢→100¢Paper return+47.1%
Aug 24WinWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry78%Entry → Exit68¢→100¢Paper return+47.1%
Aug 10WinIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry81%Entry → Exit68¢→100¢Paper return+47.1%
Sep 8WinWill Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry86%Entry → Exit69¢→100¢Paper return+44.9%
Oct 1WinWill Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry79%Entry → Exit70¢→100¢Paper return+42.9%
Sep 3WinWill AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry80%Entry → Exit70¢→100¢Paper return+42.9%
Aug 28WinWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry87%Entry → Exit70¢→100¢Paper return+42.9%
Aug 7WinWill Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry88%Entry → Exit70¢→100¢Paper return+42.9%
Sep 30WinWill Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry81%Entry → Exit71¢→100¢Paper return+40.8%
Sep 19WinUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry86%Entry → Exit72¢→100¢Paper return+38.9%
Sep 17WinWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry80%Entry → Exit72¢→100¢Paper return+38.9%
Sep 3WinWill My Alnebratt be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry81%Entry → Exit72¢→100¢Paper return+38.9%
Aug 29WinWill AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry91%Entry → Exit72¢→100¢Paper return+38.9%
Jul 30WinIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry84%Entry → Exit72¢→100¢Paper return+38.9%
Sep 9WinWill Lars Markus Hildingsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry83%Entry → Exit74¢→100¢Paper return+35.1%
Aug 30WinWill Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry84%Entry → Exit74¢→100¢Paper return+35.1%
Aug 27WinUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry84%Entry → Exit74¢→100¢Paper return+35.1%
Jul 19WinIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry85%Entry → Exit74¢→100¢Paper return+35.1%
Jul 14WinWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry92%Entry → Exit74¢→100¢Paper return+35.1%
Sep 30WinUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry87%Entry → Exit77¢→100¢Paper return+29.9%
Sep 1WinWill Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry88%Entry → Exit77¢→100¢Paper return+29.9%
Sep 9WinWill CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry87%Entry → Exit78¢→100¢Paper return+28.2%
Aug 31WinWill Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry87%Entry → Exit78¢→100¢Paper return+28.2%
Aug 28WinWill Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry93%Entry → Exit78¢→100¢Paper return+28.2%
Jul 14WinWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry91%Entry → Exit78¢→100¢Paper return+28.2%
Jul 7WinStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry93%Entry → Exit78¢→100¢Paper return+28.2%
Sep 9WinWill Angelica Katsanidou be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry89%Entry → Exit79¢→100¢Paper return+26.6%
Aug 27WinWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry89%Entry → Exit79¢→100¢Paper return+26.6%
Jul 29WinIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry91%Entry → Exit79¢→100¢Paper return+26.6%
Jul 11WinWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry94%Entry → Exit79¢→100¢Paper return+26.6%
Jul 2WinWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry92%Entry → Exit79¢→100¢Paper return+26.6%
Sep 28WinWill Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry88%Entry → Exit80¢→100¢Paper return+25%
Sep 19WinUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry88%Entry → Exit80¢→100¢Paper return+25%
Sep 7WinWill SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry88%Entry → Exit80¢→100¢Paper return+25%
Aug 28WinWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry92%Entry → Exit80¢→100¢Paper return+25%
Aug 27WinUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry88%Entry → Exit80¢→100¢Paper return+25%
Aug 17WinWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry92%Entry → Exit80¢→100¢Paper return+25%
Sep 25WinUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry91%Entry → Exit81¢→100¢Paper return+23.5%
Sep 18WinSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry91%Entry → Exit82¢→100¢Paper return+22%
Sep 7WinWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry91%Entry → Exit82¢→100¢Paper return+22%
Sep 3WinWill David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry91%Entry → Exit82¢→100¢Paper return+22%
Sep 1WinWill Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry93%Entry → Exit82¢→100¢Paper return+22%
Sep 25WinWill Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry93%Entry → Exit83¢→100¢Paper return+20.5%
Sep 23WinUS x China tariff agreement by October 31?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry94%Entry → Exit83¢→100¢Paper return+20.5%
Sep 21WinWill Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry94%Entry → Exit84¢→100¢Paper return+19%
Aug 31WinIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry98%Entry → Exit84¢→100¢Paper return+19%
Aug 30WinWill Rayssa Furlan win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry93%Entry → Exit84¢→100¢Paper return+19%
Aug 6WinWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry94%Entry → Exit84¢→100¢Paper return+19%
Jul 18WinIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry94%Entry → Exit84¢→100¢Paper return+19%
Sep 1WinWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry95%Entry → Exit86¢→100¢Paper return+16.3%
Oct 20LossWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry72%Entry → Exit61¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Oct 3LossWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry81%Entry → Exit64¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 30LossIsrael Election: Sami Abu Shehadeh Effectively Banned?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry83%Entry → Exit74¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 29LossTrump renames AI by October 31?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry57%Entry → Exit20¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 23LossWill Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry68%Entry → Exit60¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 23LossTrump renames AI by September 30?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry80%Entry → Exit68¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 21LossWill Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry91%Entry → Exit80¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 21LossWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry65%Entry → Exit52¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 20LossWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry84%Entry → Exit69¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 20LossWill voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry80%Entry → Exit70¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 19LossWill United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry50%Entry → Exit40¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 19LossTrump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry55%Entry → Exit39¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 19LossWill Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry71%Entry → Exit58¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 18LossWill Linke win between 8% and 11% of all valid second votes?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry77%Entry → Exit63¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 17LossWill Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry93%Entry → Exit81¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 15LossSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry58%Entry → Exit45¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 14LossWill Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry87%Entry → Exit76¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 13LossWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry87%Entry → Exit79¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 8LossWill the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry92%Entry → Exit78¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 8LossSweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry53%Entry → Exit40¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 8LossWill Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry55%Entry → Exit38¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 8LossWill the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law?Q → YESKalshiQ at entry78%Entry → Exit42¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 3LossWill Urban Granström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry64%Entry → Exit53¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 3LossWill the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry88%Entry → Exit75¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 2LossWill the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry91%Entry → Exit78¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 2LossWill SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry68%Entry → Exit56¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Sep 1LossWill Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry61%Entry → Exit50¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 30LossNATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry88%Entry → Exit72¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 29LossWill Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry82%Entry → Exit71¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 28LossWill CZ post 20-39 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry89%Entry → Exit66¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 28LossWill Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry66%Entry → Exit57¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 27LossIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry78%Entry → Exit53¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 26LossUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry84%Entry → Exit76¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 25LossWill CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?Q → NOPolymarketQ at entry80%Entry → Exit70¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 21LossWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry92%Entry → Exit83¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 20LossWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry82%Entry → Exit72¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 13LossUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry67%Entry → Exit56¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Aug 5LossWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry58%Entry → Exit28¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Jul 31LossWill the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry78%Entry → Exit62¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Jul 16LossWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry65%Entry → Exit42¢→0¢Paper return−100%
Jul 13LossWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Q → YESPolymarketQ at entry53%Entry → Exit32¢→0¢Paper return−100%
